Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Elf on hiatus
If you haven't noticed, I've stopped posting. It will continue again in the future. For now, too many real life issues need attention.
Saturday, June 6, 2009
Cavaliers: In memorium
One of the Elf's favorite movies was on last weekend: the George Clooney-Brad Pitt remake of Ocean's Eleven.
At one point, Clooney surprises his ex-wife, Julia Roberts, at a restaurant. Clooney laments the fact Roberts is now shacking up with a casino billionaire played by Andy Garcia, saying "anybody but him". Roberts points out that an ex-husband would likely say something like that about anyone she sees. The fact that she's with any man would cause him to say "anyone but him".
And so I feel the same way about Orlando being in the Finals. Anybody but them, with their bandwagoning fans, whiny coach and even whinier-than-LeBron superstar. Anybody but the team that struggled to defeat a team that struggled to beat our bench.
(aside - The most frustrating part were the people that had already convinced themselves that David Stern was going to have officials do whatever they could to help the Cavs advance. Despite the fact that this was clearly not the case, people, from fans to media the the Magic players and coaches, still ran with the idea. Would the Magic have shot 51 free throws in regulation if the fix was in? Would get LeBron get called for a travel in a tie game with less than 1 minute left in the 4th of a must win game if the fix was in? Would the officials let Dwight Howard pull down Delonte West to keep him from securing the game winning rebound in game 3 if the fix was in?)
In reality, anybody but us is a huge disappointment.
- Rehashing the series in depth won't give me closure. But there were three big reasons why the series went the way did.
The first one was the Cavs basic inability to guard Dwight Howard. We knew this was going to be a problem going in, and that Dwight would have some big games, because he's the best center in the league. But what made it even more frustrating was the way he all of a sudden was able to shoot free throws. He spent the last four regular seasons in the 58%-60% range. In this series, he shot 70%. Even worse, check out the splits in the games the Cavs won versus the games they lost:
Cavs wins: 12-21, 57%
Cavs losses: 35-46, 76%
When he shot like he does normally, the Cavs won. Quite frankly, that is just shitty luck for the Cavs. He went 14-19 and 7-9 in games 3 and 4. If he reverts back to his norm in either game, the Cavs could easily have pulled one of them out, and there could've been a game 7 at home. Frustrating.
The second key was the three point shooting. The Magic had been up and down all playoffs with their 3 point shooting. The only real "bad" game they had was 8-25 in game 5. Now, the big question is how much of their good shooting was just them getting hot and the wrong time and how much was bad defense. Seeing as how Orlando struggled against Philly from 3's, and Philly was a below average defensive 3 point team, the fact that they went off against the best 3 point defensive team tells me, like Howard's free throws, it was shitty Cavs luck. Again.
The final key was probably the most frustrating. Mo Williams sucked for the first 4 games. There is no better way to say it. In the first 4 games Mo shot 23-71 from the field (32%) and 6-27 from 3's (22%).
The thing was, many of them were good, open looks. Rafer Alston is not known as a defensive wizard. Much of Orlando's help defense (like every other team) was slanted towards LeBron. If Mo plays normal Mo basketball for the first 4 games, and everything else (Howard's free throws and Orlando's torrid 3 point shooting included), then the Cavs have relatively comfortable wins in games 1, 2 and 4, and have a shot in game 3.
And thus goes the story of Cleveland sports: against a team that matches up well against us, and was playing well, all that we needed to beat them was our best shooter hitting open shots. And it didn't happen.
- I'd be remiss if I didn't mention LeBron's epic performance, in the series and throughout the playoffs. He averaged 35 pts in 41 minutes while shooting 51%, as well as averaging 9 boards and 7 assists. And he hit a buzzer beater, and hit 2 free throws with .5 seconds left to tie a game on the road. All while getting everything every defense had to throw at him.
The only way this dude doesn't win multiple titles is injury. Unfortunately, rthe location of said titles will remain conjecture for a while.
- So what now? The Cavs have some work to do. Last year, it seemed like they didn't have many assets, but got Mo for nothing. This year, they have more assets, multiple avenues, and a climate where teams are looking to shed salary. More on that coming up.
In the meantime: This makes it 114 straight Cavs, Indians and Browns seasons without a title. And this was the best shot to break it.
At one point, Clooney surprises his ex-wife, Julia Roberts, at a restaurant. Clooney laments the fact Roberts is now shacking up with a casino billionaire played by Andy Garcia, saying "anybody but him". Roberts points out that an ex-husband would likely say something like that about anyone she sees. The fact that she's with any man would cause him to say "anyone but him".
And so I feel the same way about Orlando being in the Finals. Anybody but them, with their bandwagoning fans, whiny coach and even whinier-than-LeBron superstar. Anybody but the team that struggled to defeat a team that struggled to beat our bench.
(aside - The most frustrating part were the people that had already convinced themselves that David Stern was going to have officials do whatever they could to help the Cavs advance. Despite the fact that this was clearly not the case, people, from fans to media the the Magic players and coaches, still ran with the idea. Would the Magic have shot 51 free throws in regulation if the fix was in? Would get LeBron get called for a travel in a tie game with less than 1 minute left in the 4th of a must win game if the fix was in? Would the officials let Dwight Howard pull down Delonte West to keep him from securing the game winning rebound in game 3 if the fix was in?)
In reality, anybody but us is a huge disappointment.
- Rehashing the series in depth won't give me closure. But there were three big reasons why the series went the way did.
The first one was the Cavs basic inability to guard Dwight Howard. We knew this was going to be a problem going in, and that Dwight would have some big games, because he's the best center in the league. But what made it even more frustrating was the way he all of a sudden was able to shoot free throws. He spent the last four regular seasons in the 58%-60% range. In this series, he shot 70%. Even worse, check out the splits in the games the Cavs won versus the games they lost:
Cavs wins: 12-21, 57%
Cavs losses: 35-46, 76%
When he shot like he does normally, the Cavs won. Quite frankly, that is just shitty luck for the Cavs. He went 14-19 and 7-9 in games 3 and 4. If he reverts back to his norm in either game, the Cavs could easily have pulled one of them out, and there could've been a game 7 at home. Frustrating.
The second key was the three point shooting. The Magic had been up and down all playoffs with their 3 point shooting. The only real "bad" game they had was 8-25 in game 5. Now, the big question is how much of their good shooting was just them getting hot and the wrong time and how much was bad defense. Seeing as how Orlando struggled against Philly from 3's, and Philly was a below average defensive 3 point team, the fact that they went off against the best 3 point defensive team tells me, like Howard's free throws, it was shitty Cavs luck. Again.
The final key was probably the most frustrating. Mo Williams sucked for the first 4 games. There is no better way to say it. In the first 4 games Mo shot 23-71 from the field (32%) and 6-27 from 3's (22%).
The thing was, many of them were good, open looks. Rafer Alston is not known as a defensive wizard. Much of Orlando's help defense (like every other team) was slanted towards LeBron. If Mo plays normal Mo basketball for the first 4 games, and everything else (Howard's free throws and Orlando's torrid 3 point shooting included), then the Cavs have relatively comfortable wins in games 1, 2 and 4, and have a shot in game 3.
And thus goes the story of Cleveland sports: against a team that matches up well against us, and was playing well, all that we needed to beat them was our best shooter hitting open shots. And it didn't happen.
- I'd be remiss if I didn't mention LeBron's epic performance, in the series and throughout the playoffs. He averaged 35 pts in 41 minutes while shooting 51%, as well as averaging 9 boards and 7 assists. And he hit a buzzer beater, and hit 2 free throws with .5 seconds left to tie a game on the road. All while getting everything every defense had to throw at him.
The only way this dude doesn't win multiple titles is injury. Unfortunately, rthe location of said titles will remain conjecture for a while.
- So what now? The Cavs have some work to do. Last year, it seemed like they didn't have many assets, but got Mo for nothing. This year, they have more assets, multiple avenues, and a climate where teams are looking to shed salary. More on that coming up.
In the meantime: This makes it 114 straight Cavs, Indians and Browns seasons without a title. And this was the best shot to break it.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Monday, May 25, 2009
Cavs in trouble
Here's a fact: if the Cavs win game 4, then the series is tied 2-2, and the Cavs have 2 out of 3 at home.
So why does it feel to me like the Cavs have no shot in this series.
After game 2, Brian Windhorst blogged this,
I thought he was talking about x's and o's. But what he says rings true on a more generic level.
The Magic just seem to have our number right now. Everything that the Cavs did successfully in the previous 90 games just aren't working. And when the Cavs do something well, Orlando does something to counter it.
In games 1 and 2, the Cavs built big leads, but Orlando's 3 point shooting brought them all the way back. In game 3, the Magic came back to earth from 3's, but countered that by getting to free throw line, and having Dwight Howard hit an insane amount (for him).
All the while, Mo Williams, who was a cold blooded marksman in the regular season, is just off. I don't know if it is fatigue, or too much pressure, or Orlando's defense or just a slump. But his shot has just been off. Basically, he's giving us what Larry Hughes gave us in the playoffs in 2007. Which is disturbing.
- And the biggest missing ingredient: confidence. Noone on the Cavs wants to take a shot, unless it's a wide open look from LeBron. That is a beast that never reared its ugly head during the regular season. At all. But all of a sudden, here it is.
Orlando has our number right now. And its painful to watch.
So why does it feel to me like the Cavs have no shot in this series.
After game 2, Brian Windhorst blogged this,
The Magic have a countermeasure, frankly a rather devastating countermeasure, for just about every defensive scheme the Cavs own. This is not a new issue, this has been an issue for the Cavs for the last two years. If you were drafting a team in a fantasy league with the intention of beating the Cavs, I'm not sure you could do a better job that what Otis Smith has constructed with the Magic.
I thought he was talking about x's and o's. But what he says rings true on a more generic level.
The Magic just seem to have our number right now. Everything that the Cavs did successfully in the previous 90 games just aren't working. And when the Cavs do something well, Orlando does something to counter it.
In games 1 and 2, the Cavs built big leads, but Orlando's 3 point shooting brought them all the way back. In game 3, the Magic came back to earth from 3's, but countered that by getting to free throw line, and having Dwight Howard hit an insane amount (for him).
All the while, Mo Williams, who was a cold blooded marksman in the regular season, is just off. I don't know if it is fatigue, or too much pressure, or Orlando's defense or just a slump. But his shot has just been off. Basically, he's giving us what Larry Hughes gave us in the playoffs in 2007. Which is disturbing.
- And the biggest missing ingredient: confidence. Noone on the Cavs wants to take a shot, unless it's a wide open look from LeBron. That is a beast that never reared its ugly head during the regular season. At all. But all of a sudden, here it is.
Orlando has our number right now. And its painful to watch.
Saturday, May 23, 2009
OK...what now
Maybe in my life I've never had such a quick and extreme change in mood. Severe depression to outrageous exhilaration in 1 tick of the clock. Indescribable.
If course, the series is still only tied 1-1, and Orlando now has home court advantage in a best a 5 series. So the Cavs have to win at least one in Orlando to advance. And it won't be easy.
Me guessing what will happen next is an excessive in futility. But there are 2 things I am looking at:
Three Point shooting
The Cavs have dominated the first quarter of both games, but eventually blow big leads. And the reason why is simple: 3 point shooting.
In the 1st quarters of both games, the Cavs are a combined +28. They 6-9 from 3's in those 1st quarters, while Orlando is 3-10. In the other 6 quarters, where Orlando is +28, the Cavs are 7-35 and Orlando is 16-35.
Both teams had relatively similar numbers shooting and defending the 3 in the regular season. So if they both took the same amount of 3's, I think one could assume both teams would be pretty close to even. As you can see, both teams took the exact same amount of 3's in the 2nd-4th quarters, and Orlando has one extra 3 in the 1st quarter.
So, basically, on the same amount of shots, the Cavs are +9 from 3's in first quarter. +9 of the Cavs +28 can be explained by differences in 3 point shooting between the 2 teams.
Orlando, however, is +27 in the other 6 quarters on the same amount of 3's. So +27 of their +28 can be explained by differences in 3 point shooting between the 2 teams.
If in both games, the Cavs had even come close to matching Orlando's 3 point output over the last 3 quarters, we're talking about the Cavs having two 5-10 point wins.
So my thought is this: if the the 3 point shooting evens out the rest of the series, I have to like the Cavs chances. (This of course assumes the Cavs continue doing the other stuff as well as they have been, which is obviously no guarantee).
The key part of that sentence is "if the 3 point shooting evens out". Because who knows if it will.
3 point shooting is usually a "noisy" area, meaning you can see a lot of big, random fluctuations. But it is still up to the Cavs to make the percentages "even" out.
The first thing they need to do is get Delonte and Mo going from 3. Delonte is 4-12, which isn't terribly off of his 39.9% regular season mark. However, Mo is only 3-14, and that includes his 70 foot prayer in game on. He's basically shooting half as well as he did in the regular season. Those numbers MUST pick up.
The other part of the equation is limiting Orlando's 3 pt shooting. The main culprits are Rashard Lewis (7-11) and Mickael Pietrus (4-8). Turkoglu is 3-6, but the Cavs have been pressuring him far away from the basket, limiting the volume of 3's. Rafer Alston has been held in check, of course he's had LeBron guarding him a lot.
Lewis is a tough cover for the Cavs. Most of his open looks have either been in transition or off a pick and roll. I don't know how the Cavs can limit his 3 point numbers short of him just going cold. If he does go cold, or the Cavs find out how to defend him, the the Cavs defense will improve infinitely.
Psychology
Two emotions are tugging at the Cavs right now:
"I can't believe we let 2 big leads evaporate at home, they have our number"
or
"We just got a second life, and we're not blowing it".
Which one wins out? I have no idea. But their mindset is a big key.
The Magic's mindset is important, too. So much has been made about Van Gundy being the "Master of Panic". Me pretending to know if he really is a "MOP" is stupid, because I've never met the guy. Will his team be able to shake off a shot like that? Who knows.
The only I can say for certain, is I feel better than I did with 1 second remaining in the game.
If course, the series is still only tied 1-1, and Orlando now has home court advantage in a best a 5 series. So the Cavs have to win at least one in Orlando to advance. And it won't be easy.
Me guessing what will happen next is an excessive in futility. But there are 2 things I am looking at:
Three Point shooting
The Cavs have dominated the first quarter of both games, but eventually blow big leads. And the reason why is simple: 3 point shooting.
In the 1st quarters of both games, the Cavs are a combined +28. They 6-9 from 3's in those 1st quarters, while Orlando is 3-10. In the other 6 quarters, where Orlando is +28, the Cavs are 7-35 and Orlando is 16-35.
Both teams had relatively similar numbers shooting and defending the 3 in the regular season. So if they both took the same amount of 3's, I think one could assume both teams would be pretty close to even. As you can see, both teams took the exact same amount of 3's in the 2nd-4th quarters, and Orlando has one extra 3 in the 1st quarter.
So, basically, on the same amount of shots, the Cavs are +9 from 3's in first quarter. +9 of the Cavs +28 can be explained by differences in 3 point shooting between the 2 teams.
Orlando, however, is +27 in the other 6 quarters on the same amount of 3's. So +27 of their +28 can be explained by differences in 3 point shooting between the 2 teams.
If in both games, the Cavs had even come close to matching Orlando's 3 point output over the last 3 quarters, we're talking about the Cavs having two 5-10 point wins.
So my thought is this: if the the 3 point shooting evens out the rest of the series, I have to like the Cavs chances. (This of course assumes the Cavs continue doing the other stuff as well as they have been, which is obviously no guarantee).
The key part of that sentence is "if the 3 point shooting evens out". Because who knows if it will.
3 point shooting is usually a "noisy" area, meaning you can see a lot of big, random fluctuations. But it is still up to the Cavs to make the percentages "even" out.
The first thing they need to do is get Delonte and Mo going from 3. Delonte is 4-12, which isn't terribly off of his 39.9% regular season mark. However, Mo is only 3-14, and that includes his 70 foot prayer in game on. He's basically shooting half as well as he did in the regular season. Those numbers MUST pick up.
The other part of the equation is limiting Orlando's 3 pt shooting. The main culprits are Rashard Lewis (7-11) and Mickael Pietrus (4-8). Turkoglu is 3-6, but the Cavs have been pressuring him far away from the basket, limiting the volume of 3's. Rafer Alston has been held in check, of course he's had LeBron guarding him a lot.
Lewis is a tough cover for the Cavs. Most of his open looks have either been in transition or off a pick and roll. I don't know how the Cavs can limit his 3 point numbers short of him just going cold. If he does go cold, or the Cavs find out how to defend him, the the Cavs defense will improve infinitely.
Psychology
Two emotions are tugging at the Cavs right now:
"I can't believe we let 2 big leads evaporate at home, they have our number"
or
"We just got a second life, and we're not blowing it".
Which one wins out? I have no idea. But their mindset is a big key.
The Magic's mindset is important, too. So much has been made about Van Gundy being the "Master of Panic". Me pretending to know if he really is a "MOP" is stupid, because I've never met the guy. Will his team be able to shake off a shot like that? Who knows.
The only I can say for certain, is I feel better than I did with 1 second remaining in the game.
Friday, May 22, 2009
Woe is us
If I was a sane sports fan, or I lived in a sane sports town, I wouldn't feel to bad.
Teams lose game 1 at home and win playoff series. The Spurs did it in 2007. Three teams have already done it this year, and another forced a game 7 after doing it.
I could merely give Orlando credit for a good comeback, and note that the Cavs have strong chemistry, which will aid them here.
I could talk about how ridiculously hot Orlando got, and look at Mo and Delonte's shooting, and say that game was an outlier.
I could at the fact that when the Cavs just let Dwight Howard get his, and guarded the shooters, the Cavs did very well.
I could note that the Cavs will likely go "smaller", but more athletic, by limiting Ben's minutes, giving Sasha some of Wally's minutes, and let LeBron guard Lewis for a good chunk of the game.
I could talk about how the Cavs just needed 1 game to get their legs back, and they will finish every game better from here one out.
But I am not a sane fan, and Cleveland is an insane sports town. So we are royally screwed.
- Game 2 almost represents a "nothing to gain" game for a fan.
If the Cavs win, even in a blowout, then they are still only tied 1-1, and Orlando basically has homecourt in a best of 5 series.
If the Cavs lose......
So I can't watch the game and ever feel good. The best case scenario is mini-disaster, and the best case scenario is epic disaster.
- We do get to see what these Cavs are made of. Hopefully, we like what we see.
Teams lose game 1 at home and win playoff series. The Spurs did it in 2007. Three teams have already done it this year, and another forced a game 7 after doing it.
I could merely give Orlando credit for a good comeback, and note that the Cavs have strong chemistry, which will aid them here.
I could talk about how ridiculously hot Orlando got, and look at Mo and Delonte's shooting, and say that game was an outlier.
I could at the fact that when the Cavs just let Dwight Howard get his, and guarded the shooters, the Cavs did very well.
I could note that the Cavs will likely go "smaller", but more athletic, by limiting Ben's minutes, giving Sasha some of Wally's minutes, and let LeBron guard Lewis for a good chunk of the game.
I could talk about how the Cavs just needed 1 game to get their legs back, and they will finish every game better from here one out.
But I am not a sane fan, and Cleveland is an insane sports town. So we are royally screwed.
- Game 2 almost represents a "nothing to gain" game for a fan.
If the Cavs win, even in a blowout, then they are still only tied 1-1, and Orlando basically has homecourt in a best of 5 series.
If the Cavs lose......
So I can't watch the game and ever feel good. The best case scenario is mini-disaster, and the best case scenario is epic disaster.
- We do get to see what these Cavs are made of. Hopefully, we like what we see.
Monday, May 18, 2009
celtics tank game 7 to aviod the Cavs
If I had a dollar for every time I outright rooted for a boston team to win anything, I'd be making money in a very odd way. But I'd also have barely enough for a Big Mac.
So it figures. I wanted to face the celtics so bad. So very, very bad. Because I wanted revenge. Because they are beat up. Because Stephon Marbury is the best bench scorer. Because their front line is dental floss thin. And the celtics f#*%ed it up for me.
It's so bad, I couldn't even enjoy boston losing. boston teams getting eliminated is my Christmas. And I couldn't enjoy Christmas this year. HUMBUG!!!
But enough lamenting. I know the Cavs won't give the celtics another thought until next season.
If you were of the mindset that the Cavs needed to be tested, or you wanted to see an actual competitive series, then you are likely in luck. Taking the bench's' loss in the finale against Philly, Orlando was the closest Eastern Conference team to beating the Cavs. The Cavs road games @ Orlando were ugly.
So here are some keys to look at:
Transition.
Charles Barkley is an idiot. You already know this, because you've heard him speak and you have at least a 4th grade level grammar comprehension skills. But he's an idiot, and it bears multiple examples.
One such example: He constantly is criticizing the Cavs for playing too slow.
Never mind the fact that the Cavs been in the top 3 in Offensive Efficiency all year. But the Cavs greatest strength as a team is their halfcourt defense. It was dynamite during the regular season, and downright epic in the first 8 playoff games. Playing at an up and down pace prohibits the Cavs from setting up their halfcourt defense.
Orlando has been near the middle of the pack, as far as pace is concerned, throughout the regular and post seasons. But in their 2 wins, the games were played in a slightly faster than average pace. The lone Cavs win was played at a slightly slower than average pace.
The Magic can give the Cavs nightmares in transition. Cavs must avoid this.
Live by the 3.
The Cavs and Magic were #2 and #7 in 3pt shooting percentage during the regular season, and #5 and #2 in 3pt attempts. Both teams have multiple guys who can shoot it.
The Magic shot a dismal 32.5% in the postseason, prior to their game 7 explosion. The Cavs have shot a "meh" 34.7% so far.
The Cavs were a little bit better at defending the 3 during the regular season. The Magic went off from 3 in one of their wins over the Cavs, but were very pedestrian in the other 2 games.
Predicting 3 point shooting over a 7 game span is tough to do. But big advantage to the team that shoots it better.
Who will guard Rashard Lewis?
You'll hear people say the Magic give the Cavs "matchup problems". I believe it's just 1 guy.
LeBron guarding Hedo Turkoglu will be fun to watch. Rafer Alston kills the Cavs, but Mo will have some help from Delonte. The celtics showed the blueprint for defending Dwight Howard: keep him at least 5 feet away from the basket.
But I don't know how the Cavs will guard Lewis. LeBron can guard him, but then someone else has to guard Turkoglu. Varejao, Ben and Joe Smith all are at an athletic disadvantage.
In Orlando 2 wins, Lewis average 20.5 pts, shot 46% from the field and 47% from 3's. In the loss, he went 3-15 from the field. So guarding him is key.
Intangibles.
This is the area that favors the Cavs.
The Cavs have homecourt advantage. They are more rested. They are WAY more experienced. The Cavs collective basketball IQ is high.
Meanwhile, the Magic have already lost twice at home, are tired, have a head coach whose name is synonymous with panic, have a superstar who can't get the ball in 4th quarter, and their shooters have no conscience.
Basically, the only thing the Magic have going for them in this regard is the fact that everyone is dismissing them, so they can play the "disrespect" card.
Okay, let me chant it once.
BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!!
Sigh. We'll catch you next year, beantown.....
So it figures. I wanted to face the celtics so bad. So very, very bad. Because I wanted revenge. Because they are beat up. Because Stephon Marbury is the best bench scorer. Because their front line is dental floss thin. And the celtics f#*%ed it up for me.
It's so bad, I couldn't even enjoy boston losing. boston teams getting eliminated is my Christmas. And I couldn't enjoy Christmas this year. HUMBUG!!!
But enough lamenting. I know the Cavs won't give the celtics another thought until next season.
If you were of the mindset that the Cavs needed to be tested, or you wanted to see an actual competitive series, then you are likely in luck. Taking the bench's' loss in the finale against Philly, Orlando was the closest Eastern Conference team to beating the Cavs. The Cavs road games @ Orlando were ugly.
So here are some keys to look at:
Transition.
Charles Barkley is an idiot. You already know this, because you've heard him speak and you have at least a 4th grade level grammar comprehension skills. But he's an idiot, and it bears multiple examples.
One such example: He constantly is criticizing the Cavs for playing too slow.
Never mind the fact that the Cavs been in the top 3 in Offensive Efficiency all year. But the Cavs greatest strength as a team is their halfcourt defense. It was dynamite during the regular season, and downright epic in the first 8 playoff games. Playing at an up and down pace prohibits the Cavs from setting up their halfcourt defense.
Orlando has been near the middle of the pack, as far as pace is concerned, throughout the regular and post seasons. But in their 2 wins, the games were played in a slightly faster than average pace. The lone Cavs win was played at a slightly slower than average pace.
The Magic can give the Cavs nightmares in transition. Cavs must avoid this.
Live by the 3.
The Cavs and Magic were #2 and #7 in 3pt shooting percentage during the regular season, and #5 and #2 in 3pt attempts. Both teams have multiple guys who can shoot it.
The Magic shot a dismal 32.5% in the postseason, prior to their game 7 explosion. The Cavs have shot a "meh" 34.7% so far.
The Cavs were a little bit better at defending the 3 during the regular season. The Magic went off from 3 in one of their wins over the Cavs, but were very pedestrian in the other 2 games.
Predicting 3 point shooting over a 7 game span is tough to do. But big advantage to the team that shoots it better.
Who will guard Rashard Lewis?
You'll hear people say the Magic give the Cavs "matchup problems". I believe it's just 1 guy.
LeBron guarding Hedo Turkoglu will be fun to watch. Rafer Alston kills the Cavs, but Mo will have some help from Delonte. The celtics showed the blueprint for defending Dwight Howard: keep him at least 5 feet away from the basket.
But I don't know how the Cavs will guard Lewis. LeBron can guard him, but then someone else has to guard Turkoglu. Varejao, Ben and Joe Smith all are at an athletic disadvantage.
In Orlando 2 wins, Lewis average 20.5 pts, shot 46% from the field and 47% from 3's. In the loss, he went 3-15 from the field. So guarding him is key.
Intangibles.
This is the area that favors the Cavs.
The Cavs have homecourt advantage. They are more rested. They are WAY more experienced. The Cavs collective basketball IQ is high.
Meanwhile, the Magic have already lost twice at home, are tired, have a head coach whose name is synonymous with panic, have a superstar who can't get the ball in 4th quarter, and their shooters have no conscience.
Basically, the only thing the Magic have going for them in this regard is the fact that everyone is dismissing them, so they can play the "disrespect" card.
Okay, let me chant it once.
BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!! BOSTON SUCKS!!!
Sigh. We'll catch you next year, beantown.....
Thursday, May 14, 2009
Feeling (Wine and) Golden
Not that I am complaining, but we get so few Cavaliers games anymore. I can't tell when the last time I heard A.C. say, "Throws the hammer down".
Ok. Better.....
- So what did we learn from the Hawks series?
LeBron is continuing to play at an epic, epic level. His PER for the playoffs is 41.68. A PER of 15 is average. A PER of 30 is elite. LeBron is at 41.68. Truly mother-f#$%ing epic.
The defense continues to be epic as well. The Hawks weren't hitting on all cylinders with Al Horford playing the series on 1 foot, but the Hawks shot in the mid-low 40% 2 times and in the mid to low 30% 2 times. Epic, I say.
Delonte West has been playing epic-ly underrated. He guarded Joe Johnson well after guarding Rip Hamilton well. His shooting's been good. His turnovers are a smidge high, but nothing catastrophic. There is a certain #24 in LA who didn't feel Delonte's epic wrath during the regular season.
Mo's been a little hot and cold. He torched the Hawks during the regular season, and in games 1 and 2. He wasn't great in Atlanta, but hit some big, big 3's. He'll be ok.
- The string of 8 straight double digit wins to open the playoffs is a record. People seem quick to dismiss this streak because of bad competition. But consider this.
Going into the playoffs, people said Detroit would give whoever they played a scare because of their experience. And Atlanta's 31 regular season home wins and 3 wins over boston last year were proof that Atlanta was a tough place to play. Then, after the Cavs dismantle them, then they are "weak" competition. Revisionism, I say. A least a little.
Detroit won 3 of 16 quarters in their series. One was the nearly epic collapse by the Cavs in the 4th quarter of game 2, but a lot of it came against backups. One was the 1st quarter of game 4, and that was a 1 point margin. The other was the 3rd quarter of game 3, where Detroit played decently well defensively.
Atlanta also won 3 quarters. One was the 4th quarter of game 2 when the Cavs were up 30. One was the second quarter of game 3, where they had an early 10-0 run in the quarter, but only posted a +3 for the entire quarter. The other was the first quarter of game 4.
So, out 32 quarter, the Cavs lost 6. Take out garbage time, it's only 4. Of those, the 3rd quarter of game 3 versus Detroit and the 1st quarter of game 4 versus Atlanta were the only times they really looked "bad".
What I am saying is, the Cavs are playing at a very high intensity. This as much about the Cavs high level of play as it is the "weakness" of competition.
- And the best news: the scumsuckers from boston only need to win 1 more game, and we get to face them in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Now, I am not "rooting" for boston to win their series against Orlando. Such a thought induces vomiting and night terrors. I am rooting for Orlano to lose that series.
Given the choice of playing boston versus playing Orlando, I EASILY choose boston because a.) we match up much better against bosotn and b.) I want revenge. And so does LeBron.
So if it is indeed boston in the ECF, expect more thoughts from me. Because I hate boston.
Ok. Better.....
- So what did we learn from the Hawks series?
LeBron is continuing to play at an epic, epic level. His PER for the playoffs is 41.68. A PER of 15 is average. A PER of 30 is elite. LeBron is at 41.68. Truly mother-f#$%ing epic.
The defense continues to be epic as well. The Hawks weren't hitting on all cylinders with Al Horford playing the series on 1 foot, but the Hawks shot in the mid-low 40% 2 times and in the mid to low 30% 2 times. Epic, I say.
Delonte West has been playing epic-ly underrated. He guarded Joe Johnson well after guarding Rip Hamilton well. His shooting's been good. His turnovers are a smidge high, but nothing catastrophic. There is a certain #24 in LA who didn't feel Delonte's epic wrath during the regular season.
Mo's been a little hot and cold. He torched the Hawks during the regular season, and in games 1 and 2. He wasn't great in Atlanta, but hit some big, big 3's. He'll be ok.
- The string of 8 straight double digit wins to open the playoffs is a record. People seem quick to dismiss this streak because of bad competition. But consider this.
Going into the playoffs, people said Detroit would give whoever they played a scare because of their experience. And Atlanta's 31 regular season home wins and 3 wins over boston last year were proof that Atlanta was a tough place to play. Then, after the Cavs dismantle them, then they are "weak" competition. Revisionism, I say. A least a little.
Detroit won 3 of 16 quarters in their series. One was the nearly epic collapse by the Cavs in the 4th quarter of game 2, but a lot of it came against backups. One was the 1st quarter of game 4, and that was a 1 point margin. The other was the 3rd quarter of game 3, where Detroit played decently well defensively.
Atlanta also won 3 quarters. One was the 4th quarter of game 2 when the Cavs were up 30. One was the second quarter of game 3, where they had an early 10-0 run in the quarter, but only posted a +3 for the entire quarter. The other was the first quarter of game 4.
So, out 32 quarter, the Cavs lost 6. Take out garbage time, it's only 4. Of those, the 3rd quarter of game 3 versus Detroit and the 1st quarter of game 4 versus Atlanta were the only times they really looked "bad".
What I am saying is, the Cavs are playing at a very high intensity. This as much about the Cavs high level of play as it is the "weakness" of competition.
- And the best news: the scumsuckers from boston only need to win 1 more game, and we get to face them in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Now, I am not "rooting" for boston to win their series against Orlando. Such a thought induces vomiting and night terrors. I am rooting for Orlano to lose that series.
Given the choice of playing boston versus playing Orlando, I EASILY choose boston because a.) we match up much better against bosotn and b.) I want revenge. And so does LeBron.
So if it is indeed boston in the ECF, expect more thoughts from me. Because I hate boston.
Monday, May 4, 2009
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